What's next? Chronic conditions, probabilities, and more. By age group over 40..

I am fifty-something. I don't want to get old. I wanted to understand better my fears, the size of these fears, and what may happen next health-wise.

The chart below is an intro. More detail below:

Chronic disease. Conditions that happen to other people. Right?

I worked with our medical professional Jen, a Nurse Practitioner, did my own research which you would be familiar with if you have listened to the Old Bull podcasts, and used an AI engine to assist in analysing available data.

Is this medical advice? No. 

Is it interesting information? Yes.

Will it change your behaviours? That depends.

An exercise in human behaviour.

What does it take for us to get the message and change?

As an example: The local park is a short walk from my house through some bushland. The alternative is an extra 1,5km following the road.

I do the shorter route regularly without giving it a second thought and appreciate the time in nature.

Then I received an email warning of poisonous snakes as a result of recent rains. I thought, we live in Australia, there are snakes, there always has been, the rain brings them out, no surprise there. Nothing to see. This news fitted with my existing knowledge, understanding, and expectations.

Did it change behaviour? No. Same path, different day.

Then I got a local stat stating that up to 1 in 5 people get bitten by snakes in Australia and that a local man had been recently bitten by a snake while walking in the same area. 

Did I change my behaviour? Yes.

I took the longer route a couple of times, and when I did walk through the bushland, I was concentrating and actively screening the path in front of me. I wanted to avoid any snakes.

Humans are complicated. What does it take to take action?

In that vein, what does it take for us to make changes that will positively impact our health? What level of information do we need and how close to home does this need to be, to take note?

Chronic disease and age in men.

 No surprises? Depressing? Maybe, or maybe time to take note. Heard the saying, "At some stage the chickens will come home to roost".

What are the chances?

Before anyone jumps on their high horse, this is not medical advice, it is information based on research.

The goal is to draw attention to conditions that may affect us at some stage in the future, and to drive some positive actions as a result.

When reviewing this with Jen she kept saying, but it depends on which specific condition? So, we decided to try and simply this to a number or score, using the following conditions from the list above and the reasons why:

1. Diabetes - Risk of further health complications and QOL.
2. Cancer (Overall risk) - Decline in well-being, the physical toll, and QOL.
3. Dementia - QOL and independence.
4. Heart disease - Risk of heart attack and QOL.
5. Osteoporosis - Risk of fractures, long-term lack of mobility.
6. Arthritis - Chronic pain and reduced mobility. Decline in physical function and QOL.
7. Stroke - Disabilities, QOL.

Probabilities and output*.

(You can find how we put this together at the end in *The Analysis)

What does this mean?

Early detection, she might not be right, mate.

Linkages.

High-level and indicative linkages. This is a complex area but you have to start somewhere. The below diagram attempts to show the interplay between lifestyle factors, outcomes, and conditions.

Easy, but not that easy. 

3 Areas of focus.

Blood pressure management. Reduced salt intake and consuming a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, combined with regular activity to help maintain healthy blood pressure levels.

Most feared:

Cancer

Highest morbidity rating:

Heart disease

Highest quality of life impact:

Dementia

What you should do next (3 things)

1. Eat well.
2. Move.
3. Sleep.

But you knew that...

From the author

None of these I found a surprise, other than "stroke". But it did help me gain some perspective on what's out there, and how with a better diet, movement regime, sleep and so on, we may be able to write out life script a little differently.

From recent experience with a partner, do not underestimate heart disease! This is not called the silent killer for nothing. Often there are no signs until it is too late. Go get that annual health check if you are not doing this already.

Jem 

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*The analysis.

We also used an AI engine to assess the following with respect to each of these and then cross-checked them.

• (A) Risk % Probability of this condition by age group.
• (B1) Fear factor /10 (How much do we fear this condition?)
• (B2) Morbidity rating (Will this kill us?)
• (B3) QOL impact /10 (QOL = Quality of Life)
• (C) Can you recover from the condition? Yes, no, partially.
• (C) Can the condition be effectively managed? Yes, no, partially.
• (C) Detection. How easy to detect /10?

The formula we used looked like this, for those fascinated by details. The A, B, and C scores were calculated using consistent data, and the damping factors were calculated consistently by High, Medium, or Low ratings. (We know B1 is subjective, but it was worth including).

 (A) x (B1 x B2 x B3) x (Damping factor calculated using (C x C x C) = Score

Multiplier effect. Thus, the max score =1,000 and median score = 250, not 500.

The presents the risk probability by age group, multiplied by real-world impact, and then moderated by recovery, management, and detection factors. The data selected was for Australian males. Sorry ladies but hopefully if you are reading this you will find it useful, if not just interesting. The lower the score, the better, so to speak.

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Disclaimer: The information provided by Old Bull Health in this article is for informational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice. Our content is not intended to be medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment, and thus reliance should not be placed on it.