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What's coming for you?

What's next? Chronic conditions, probabilities, and more. By age group over 40..

I am fifty-something. I don't want to get old. I wanted to understand better my fears, the size of these fears, and what may happen next health-wise.

Chronic disease. Conditions that happen to other people. Right?

I worked with our medical professional Jen, a Nurse Practitioner, did my own research which you would be familiar with if you have listened to the Old Bull podcasts, and used an AI engine to assist in analysing available data.

Is this medical advice? No. 

Is it interesting information? Yes.

Will it change your behaviours? That depends.

An exercise in human behaviour.

What does it take for us to get the message and change?

As an example: The local park is a short walk from my house through some bushland. The alternative is an extra 1,5km following the road.

I do the shorter route regularly without giving it a second thought and appreciate the time in nature.

Then I received an email warning of poisonous snakes as a result of recent rains. I thought, we live in Australia, there are snakes, there always has been, the rain brings them out, no surprise there. Nothing to see. This news fitted with my existing knowledge, understanding, and expectations.

Did it change behaviour? No. Same path, different day.

Then I got a local stat stating that up to 1 in 5 people get bitten by snakes in Australia and that a local man had been recently bitten by a snake while walking in the same area. 

Did I change my behaviour? Yes.

I took the longer route a couple of times, and when I did walk through the bushland, I was concentrating and actively screening the path in front of me. I wanted to avoid any snakes.

Humans are complicated. What does it take to take action?

In that vein, what does it take for us to make changes that will positively impact our health? What level of information do we need and how close to home does this need to be, to take note?

Chronic disease and age in men.

So, what are some of the watchouts as we age?
 41-50 YO
  • Hypertension (High blood pressure) increased risk of heart disease and stroke.
  • Type II diabetes is linked to lifestyle factors/ obesity.
  • Obesity (weight gain leading to other health issues).
  • High cholesterol contributes to heart disease.
  • Early onset arthritis, osteoporosis, and joint issues.
51-60 YO
  • Cardiovascular disease. Increased risk of heart disease, heart attacks, and strokes.
  • Type II diabetes is more prevalent.
  • Prostate enlargement.
  • Arthritis
  • Low testosterone affects muscle mass, energy, and libido.
61-70 YO
  • Cardiovascular disease. increased risk of heart attacks.
  • Cancers
  • Osteoarthritis
  • Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
  • Stroke
  • Osteoporosis (More common in women)
Over 70 YO
  • Dementia and cognitive decline
  • Cancers
  • Heart Disease
  • Stroke
  • Chronic kidney disease
  • Osteoporosis and falls
  • Arthritis

 No surprises? Depressing? Maybe, or maybe time to take note. Heard the saying, "At some stage the chickens will come home to roost".

What are the chances?

Before anyone jumps on their high horse, this is not medical advice, it is information based on research.

The goal is to draw attention to conditions that may affect us at some stage in the future, and to drive some positive actions as a result.

When reviewing this with Jen she kept saying, but it depends on which specific condition? So, we decided to try and simply this to a number or score, using the following conditions from the list above and the reasons why:

  1. Diabetes - Risk of further health complications and QOL.
  2. Cancer (Overall risk) - Decline in well-being, the physical toll, and QOL.
  3. Dementia - QOL and independence.
  4. Heart disease - Risk of heart attack and QOL.
  5. Osteoporosis - Risk of fractures, long-term lack of mobility.
  6. Arthritis - Chronic pain and reduced mobility. Decline in physical function and QOL.
  7. Stroke - Disabilities, QOL.

Probabilities and output*.

(You can find how we put this together at the end in *The Analysis)

First, we plotted each age group, separated by condition to show the increase over time for that condition:
Chronic disease scores
Then we plotted each condition against the age groups. The same data just presented in a different way. 
Chronic disease by age range
The overall scores from highest to lowest based on averages across all age ranges were as follows, compared to the average.
  1. Cancers - 159 + 154% (Against median score)
  2. Heart disease - 133 + 113%
  3. Stroke - 75 + 20%
  4. Dementia - 44 -30%
  5. Diabetes - 37 -41%
  6. Osteoporosis - 17 -73%
  7. Arthritis - 17 - 73%

What does this mean?

Well, to me it means a couple of things:
  • Early detection is key, so screening is critical. 
  • Some conditions are linked or even driven by, or a result of another. 

Early detection, she might not be right, mate.

After the age of 50 YO book in for an annual health check with your GP and ensure the following are attended to:
  • Blood test (GP) - Prostate, Cholesterol, testosterone, diabetes.
  • Blood pressure check (GP)
  • Weight, height, BMI (GP)
  • Dementia (GP) - Done by questionnaire. 
  • Bowel cancer - This should arrive in the mail from 50 YO onward.
  • Skin cancer - Visit a skin cancer clinic.
  • Bone density scan - Dexa scan. Will need a referral.
  • Breast cancer (Ladies) - Mammogram.
  • Cervical cancer (Ladies) - Pap Smear.

For more info on annual health check follow this link.

Linkages.

High-level and indicative linkages. This is a complex area but you have to start somewhere. The below diagram attempts to show the interplay between lifestyle factors, outcomes, and conditions.

Health drivers
Bottom line - Weight is a significant factor driving outcomes. Diet and movement are the primary tools in helping manage weight.
Easy, but not that easy. 

3 Areas of focus.

The bit you maybe least want to hear, but hopefully, some of the data will give you the nudge you may need, if you aren't optimising these already.
In order of overall ranking.
1. CANCER (overall score 158)
Screening can pick up some of these, the rest might be when symptoms present themselves. Always be cognisant. Consider your diet: increasing vegetable intake and eating whole grains and lean proteins. Moderate or stop processed foods, red meat, and alcohol.

2. HEART DISEASE (overall score 133)
Can manifest in various ways or not. Cholesterol scores and any chest pain should be taken seriously. Regular aerobic exercise like walking, jogging, or cycling. Reduces risk factors like high blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity and strengthens the heart, improving circulation.

3. STROKE (overall score 75)

Blood pressure management. Reduced salt intake and consuming a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, combined with regular activity to help maintain healthy blood pressure levels.

Most feared:

Cancer

Highest morbidity rating:

Heart disease

Highest quality of life impact:

Dementia

What you should do next (3 things)

  1. Eat well.
  2. Move.
  3. Sleep.

But you knew that...

From the author

None of these I found a surprise, other than "stroke". But it did help me gain some perspective on what's out there, and how with a better diet, movement regime, sleep and so on, we may be able to write out life script a little differently.

From recent experience with a partner, do not underestimate heart disease! This is not called the silent killer for nothing. Often there are no signs until it is too late. Go get that annual health check if you are not doing this already.

Jem 

 ____________________

*The analysis.

We also used an AI engine to assess the following with respect to each of these and then cross-checked them.

  • (A) Risk % Probability of this condition by age group.
  • (B1) Fear factor /10 (How much do we fear this condition?)
  • (B2) Morbidity rating (Will this kill us?)
  • (B3) QOL impact /10 (QOL = Quality of Life)
  • (C) Can you recover from the condition? Yes, no, partially.
  • (C) Can the condition be effectively managed? Yes, no, partially.
  • (C) Detection. How easy to detect /10?

The formula we used looked like this, for those fascinated by details. The A, B, and C scores were calculated using consistent data, and the damping factors were calculated consistently by High, Medium, or Low ratings. (We know B1 is subjective, but it was worth including).

 (A) x (B1 x B2 x B3) x (Damping factor calculated using (C x C x C) = Score

Multiplier effect. Thus, the max score =1,000 and median score = 250, not 500.

The presents the risk probability by age group, multiplied by real-world impact, and then moderated by recovery, management, and detection factors. The data selected was for Australian males. Sorry ladies but hopefully if you are reading this you will find it useful, if not just interesting. The lower the score, the better, so to speak.

____________________

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Disclaimer: The information provided by Old Bull Health in this article is for informational purposes and should not replace professional medical advice. Our content is not intended to be medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment, and thus reliance should not be placed on it.

 

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